Cliodynamics

Quantitative historical sociology that applies mathematical modeling to historical-civilizational cycles. Founded by Peter Turchin (Russian-American population biologist) around 2003, combining Ibn Khaldūn's ʿasabiyya theory with demographic-structural modeling. The signature claim: civilizational dynamics are governed by recurring patterns identifiable through quantitative analysis of population, elite numbers, real wages, state finances, and political violence. Secular cycles of roughly 100-150 years and fathers-and-sons cycles of roughly 40-50 years operate simultaneously. Turchin's 2010 Nature paper predicted the early-2020s American political crisis. In the framework's notation, the school operates at (8+9)×11 — inspection-and-memory directed at authority across time. Method-kin of Ibn Khaldūn's Muqaddimah, but with quantitative apparatus.

· 2003– · active · influence 6/10